Ok guys here is the maths. 

You know perth.com.au had 138 entries and if you managed to get say 10
entries in the ballot then your chance (probability) of winning this
ballot is

10/138 = .07 or 7 percent which is not all that good.

Now if the next domain casino had say 100 entries then
again 10/100 = .1 or 10 percent etc. Again not good, chance of
getting both is even smaller but wait there's more.

Now here's the rub - to get *all* those domains the probability is
multipled by the probability of getting *each* domain so for the sake of
the example lets assume 3 other domains had only 20 entries each. Then the
prob for this lot is 10/20 = .5 or 50 percent each (I think I"m being
generous here).

So the probability of getting the whole 5 is:

0.07 x 0.01 x .5 x .5 x .5 = .0000875 = .00875 percent
or about 1 in 11,000

So this is clearly not likely so what on earth is going on here?

Punters should hold all tickets and the stewards launch an
immediate enquiry. Subject to verification of my analysis this
auction was clearly invalid and should be redone.


doug


On Tue, 30 Aug 2005, Dave wrote:

> I just checked the 20 most popular geographic domains as reported by auDA 
> and it seems that of the 9 domains registered so far, 5 were won by a Mr 
> Jeff Marr of Aussie Destinations Pty Ltd. These include -
> 
> perth.com.au <http://perth.com.au>
> casino.com.au <http://casino.com.au>
> newcastle.com.au <http://newcastle.com.au>
> darwin.com.au <http://darwin.com.au>
> airliebeach.com.au <http://airliebeach.com.au>
> 
> The other 4 domains seem to be randomly allocated to 4 different entities.
> 
> What are the odds of winning 25% of the top 20 most sought after domains - 
> many of which had around 100 applications?
> 
> Dave
>